Wednesday, June 10, 2009

SPX consolidation

As I said last time I expected the SPX to move sideways for about a month and we're now eight days into it. The gap (G1) still has not yet filled and it probably will. ST-S1 is roughly the confirmed Head-and-shoulders Neckline (NL2) which has now been tested approximately three times. My current plans are to just sit tight hoping to sell at SPX 1000 or higher but that could change if we are near ST-R1 (950) at a market close I might be tempted to exit and buy back in on any lower close inside this little trading range.

Monday, June 1, 2009

Another Head-and-Shoulders Bottom (HSB) Confirmed.

The SPX has broken out above NL2 confirming another HSB. The upside implications of HSB1 and HSB2 are 1075 and 1200, and are indicated on the chart above.
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Today opened with an upside gap. This should tend to pull the SPX back down to retest NL2 and attempt to fill the gap. Since we have two more days of the early June seasonally bullish bias, I'm still hoping this rally has the legs to reach near 1000 (NL3?) quickly. If it happens in the next few days, I will take profits hoping to reenter at the NL2 retest, which I believe will remain likely until NL3? is overcome to the upside.
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I expect NL3? to provide significant resistance to the SPX. I expect the SPX to consolidate between NL3? and NL2 for a month or so just like what occurred in May between NL2 and NL1. The resistance at 1000 (NL3?) may become such an obvious place to exit that NL3? ends up sloping downward just as NL2 did.
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I'm not sure about my exact sell strategy at this point but I'll keep you posted.