Monday, May 11, 2009

Gap open down Today.

The SPX gapped down today and almost filled the G2 gap but plenty of buyers at the gap stopped the drop quickly. The SPX has been trending up slightly ever since. This uptrend has set up a support line parallel but above ST-S1. This and the recent action with the SPX near to, and slightly above ST-R1 at the channels high boundary indicates that the SPX is having trouble getting anything really going on the downside. This is what one would expect in a market that should move much higher.
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The SPX couldn't meet my buy criteria on Thursday so I'm still looking for a good entry point for my capital not managed by mechanical methods. I am still "hopeful" for a break down and out of the ST-S1/ST-R1 channel, which would imply a then a drop down to retest the Head-and-Shoulders Bottom (HSB) neckline NL and fill G3. I say "hopeful" because I don't have anything that leads me to believe that this is likely except that NL retests often happen and that gaps usually fill. When I'm 50/50 on something, I'll always err on the conservative side. So I'll be waiting patiently.