Wednesday, May 20, 2009

I'll give this position some room.

I've entered 100% long with account not managed by mechanical methods near the low on the retest of the Head-and-Shoulders Bottom (HSB) neckline (NL). This HSB implies an eventual move to around SPX 1100 (NL-OBJ).
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It appears to me that the SPX is trying hard to replicate the mirror image of what it did before the March 2009 low (HEAD). It appears we're at about the point p1 on the graph above. The Early-October - Early-January 2009 consolidation took about three months to complete so I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPX do the same thing now a bit abbreviated in amplitude and time which is common on the right side of symmetrical moves. This consolidation should be pretty frustrating for most.
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I wouldn't be surprised to see both NL?'s eventually overcome, confirming other HSB's implying even higher moves in the SPX.
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For now I'm going to give this position some room to operate and so I currently have no stop level where I'll panic out of this position.